Category Archives: CPI

Fed Remains On Track To Raise Rates Again In September

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The recent turmoil in emerging markets hasn’t deterred the Federal Reserve from lifting interest rates at next month’s monetary policy meeting, according to analysts, Fed funds futures, and the recent trend in inflation-adjusted base money supply. A handful pundits still wonder whether the escalating financial crisis in Turkey, which has weighed on stocks and bonds […]

5-Year Treasury Market’s Inflation Forecast Dips To 3-Month Low

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Economists are expecting that US consumer inflation will hold steady in tomorrow’s July update while Fed funds futures are pricing in another rate hike at next month Federal Reserve meeting. Yet the implied inflation outlook via 5-year Treasuries bears watching in the days ahead as it suggests that a new round of disinflation could be […]

US Inflation’s Slow, Steady Rebound Looks Set To Continue

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Thursday’s report on consumer inflation for June is expected to show that the recent firming trend will roll on. Analysts are looking for the year-over-year rate in headline prices to tick up to the fastest pace in over six years. It’s easy to overstate the rebound in pricing pressure, which appears dramatic after flirting with […]

10-Year Treasury Yield Rises To Seven-Year High

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The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 3.08% on Tuesday (May 15), marking a new seven-year high, based on daily data published by Treasury.gov. The implied inflation forecast via Treasuries continued to advance as well, signaling that the market is pricing in firmer pricing pressure in the months ahead. Notably, the yield spread between […]

Softer Inflation Data For April Doesn’t Change Fed’s Policy Outlook

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News reports covering yesterday’s April report on consumer inflation emphasize that the monthly increase fell short of the consensus forecast. The cooler-than-expected gain is cited by some analysts as a factor that will allow the Federal Reserve to slow its plans for raising interest rates. Perhaps, but reviewing the annual pace of inflation and the […]

Consumer Inflation Expected To Rise Further Over Fed’s 2% Target

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Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has been one of the central bank’s doves and so it’s notable that he’s now talking like a hawk, at least on the margins. In a speech on Friday, he said the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation remains on track, which means that “continuing our slow, gradual increases will be […]

US Retail Spending Cools As Inflation Edges Higher

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The US economic profile hit some turbulence in yesterday’s updates on retail sales and consumer inflation in January. The surprisingly soft spending data suggest that the macro trend has moderated in the kickoff to 2018 while pricing pressure can no longer be counted on to remain unusually low. Reviewing the latest reports in terms of […]

Treasury Market’s Inflation Outlook Dips From Four-Year High

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The Treasury’s market’s implied inflation forecast last week reached the highest level since 2014, reflecting growing concern that pricing pressure is heating up. But the reflation trade has cooled this week, providing support for some analysts who argue that inflation fears are exaggerated. A reality check is due to arrive in today’s January update on […]

Research Review | 19 January 2018 | The Business Cycle

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Fama-French Factors and Business Cycles Arnav Sheth and Tee Lim (Saint Mary’s College of California) December 4, 2017 We examine the behavior of Fama-French factors across business cycles measured in various ways. We first split up the business cycles into four stages and examine the cumulative returns of factors in each of those stages. We […]

Treasury Market Inflation Estimate Jumps To Eight-Month High

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Official inflation rates for the US are still low, but the Treasury market is expecting firmer pricing pressure in 2018. The implied inflation rate based on the yield spread for the nominal 10-year Note less its inflation-indexed counterpart rose to 1.93% on Thursday (Dec. 21), according to daily figures published by Treasury.gov. The increase marks […]